May 10, 2016
Short Term Update:
For the last few days we have been talking about the two options in gold.
Either all of wave *iii* is complete at the 1306.00 high or just wave !I! of our wave ^v^ thrust is. In yesterday’s trading session, gold was sharply lower, and reached a low of 1261.00.
In the overnight session, gold remained stable and reached a high of 1269.50, at the time that this Post was being written. Short term wave traders grabbed some great profits on the short side, and are hungry for another win, but we need to wait for a bit more wave clarity before placing our next power trade.
If wave *iii* is complete at the 1306.00 low, then we expect the current drop is wave *iv*, and our retracements for the end of wave *iv* are;
23.6% = 1247.10;
38.2% = 1210.70.
It is a bit early to conclude what type of pattern wave *iv* is going to follow, but if we are in wave *iv*, it is NOT complete at 1261.00, as it is much too shallow to be all of wave *iv*.
On the other hand, as we said in an Intraday Post yesterday, while travelling to NYC, gold has now completed the minimum requirements for a completed 3 wave pattern from the 1306.00 high to the 1261.00 low. So if we are still in our wave ^v^ thrust, and it is subdividing then the count would look like:
!I! = 1306.00;
!ii! = 1261.00, if complete, to complete all of wave !ii!
Retracements for wave !ii! are:
50% = 1267.30;
61.8% = 1258.10
Upon completion of wave !ii!, our wave !iii! rally is next.
WE should know in the next 24 to 48 hours which way gold wants to go!
Longer Term Update:
Based on the current count, gold is still working on its first impulsive sequence out of its wave (2) of 3 low, and we still have a little way to before this sequence is complete. We should now be falling in wave *iv*.
Active Trading Positions: Long 20 positions, with puts at 1085.00!
Short Term Update:
Crude reached a low of 43.04 in yesterday’s trading session. In the overnight session, crude was higher, reaching 43.98, at the time that this Post was being written.
There is no change to our current analysis as we still see further weakness, as we are still short of our 50% retracement level for all of wave !ii!, which is 42.89.
Upon completion of wave !ii!, we expect a sharp rally in wave !iii! and we will buy crude at 42.50 to try and grab this next leg up.
Our updated count is:
^i^ = 43.69;
^ii^ = 39.00;
!i! = 46.78;
!ii! = 43.03, if complete, but we expect further softness as our retracement levels are:
50% = 42.89;
61.8% = 41.97
Projections for the end of all of wave ^iii^ are:
^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 52.67;
^iii^ = 2.618^i^ = 61.11
Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:
*iii* = 1.618*i* = 61.84.
Suncor made a slightly lower low in yesterday’s trading reaching 25.31. We are still looking for the end of wave .a. of -ii-. Retracement levels for all of wave -ii are:
61.8% = 22.98
If wave .a. is ending, then we should expect a wave .b. rally, a shown on the Weekly Suncor Chart, as the next big event.
Long Term Update:
We are now working on the assumption that a major low in wave b of B was reached at the 26.05 low. If this assumption is correct, then crude is now heading sharply higher, at least back to the all-time high of 147.27.
Active Big Wave Positions: Buying at 42.50, risking to 38.99
Short Term Positions: We’re long as of this morning, with a tight stop at $42.90!
Short Term Update:
Not much happened in the S&P in yesterday’s trading, and in the overnight session the S&P Futures are up about 12 points at the time that this Post was being written.
As you can see on the attached 120 Min S&P Chart, we have made a change to our count for wave -iv-. It now could be possible that all of wave -iv- is complete at the 2039.45 low. If that is the case, then we should now be starting wave -v- higher.
It is still difficult to say whether all of wave -iv- is now complete. or whether it will become more complex and even a bullish triangle. If it is becoming a bullish triangle then we just completed the first leg of that triangle at the 2039.4 low.
We should get a better picture tin this week’s trading.
Wave -iv- retracements levels are as follows:
23.6% = 2057.41;
38.2% = 2025.61.
Long Term Update:
Wave -i- of (v) is complete at the 1946.70 high, and wave -ii- at 1891.00. We should now be heading to our second projected target for the end of wave -iii- and once that wave is complete, we should expect drop in wave -iv-.
Our minimum target for the end of wave (v) is the all-time high of 2134.72.
Active Big Wave Trading Positions: Flat.
Short Term: We grabbed a short term long position this morning, risking to 2038!
Short Term Update:
The USDX rallied to 94.33 in the overnight session, at the time that this Post was being written.
This rally has now eliminated our latest count and we are unsure of the short term count for this market. We will need to wait for more wave clarity before making a short term waves projection.
Long Term Trading Update:
The longer term picture is clear. It looks like all of wave ii was completed at the 100.71 high and we are now heading sharply lower in wave iii.
Active Trading Positions: Flat.
HUI/GDX and Selected Gold Stocks:
Short Term Update:
AS expected the GDX and our selected gold stocks were sharply lower in yesterday’s trading.
It looks like these markets are following our exact suggested paths, within their respective corrections.
As you can see on the 60 Min GDX Chart, it looks like all of wave (b) ended at 25.44, and we are now falling in wave (c) of ii. Our minimum target for all of wave (c) is the wave (a) low of 23.29, but we do have much lower targets with our retracements levels, that are shown in the attached 60 Min GDX Chart. Traders can expect further weakness in the days ahead.
As you can see on the 120 Min ABX Chart, wave .b. ended at 18.84, and we are now falling in wave .c. In this market wave .c. has satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed 3 wave drop as we have traded below the wave .a. low of 17.32. We doubt the all of wave (ii) is complete at the current low of 17.32, as we are still above our retracement zone. Expect further weakness here also.
Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!
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Captain Ewave & Crew!
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